The return period of an extremely hot and dry warm season that has a 100-year return period if temperature and precipitation were not correlated is reduced to merely 16 years in some regions due to the negative correlation between temperature and precipitation fig. Although important for assessments of future risks associated with climate extremes, the investigation of changes in the occurrence of compound events has received only limited attention so far 56. Changes in bivariate return periods The likelihood of a bivariate extreme may change if the dependence structure of the two underlying variables changes. These events often have disproportionate impacts on humans and ecosystems 1 — 4. Risk can be defined sonia vera anal follows 10: Our analysis suggests that univariate assessments of extremes may fall short in communicating risks related to impacts of climate extremes, because often several variables are responsible for causing extreme impacts 19.
The return period in years associated with the exceedance probability p is given by. By promoting disease spread, extremely hot and dry conditions also strongly affect human health 20 — 22. The new exceedance probability p 1 is given by Eq. However, model projections of circulation patterns are highly uncertain 40. Compound climate extremes are extreme events for which more than one variable is involved.
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